On May 20, 2026, Yardi Matrix raised its U.S. self-storage supply forecast for the second time this year. The driver was not a construction boom. It was the 54 million net rentable square feet (NRSF) still under construction when 2025 closed, inventory that completion timelines will push into 2026 regardless of what starts look like today.
At the same time, Q1 2026 construction starts ran 29% below the pace recorded a year earlier. Advertised rates fell 2% nationally in March 2026, extending declines of 1.2% in February and 0.4% in January. Street rates averaged $133 per month in April, up 1.5% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025. The market is delivering more space into a pricing environment that has not yet found a floor.
Why Did Yardi Matrix Increase the Forecast While Starts Collapsed?
Yardi Matrix attributed the revised outlook to a modest increase in development activity at the end of 2025. Current completion timelines suggest most of the 54 million NRSF in the year-end pipeline will finish in 2026. The forecast now projects roughly 45 million NRSF of new supply in 2027 and 38.62 million NRSF in 2028.
That is the mechanical side of the equation. The behavioral side looks different. With Q1 2026 starts down 29% year over year, "2025's decline in new construction is continuing into 2026," the bulletin stated, with "few signs that a near-term rebound in self storage demand will take hold" this year.
Elevated long-term interest and mortgage rates are suppressing single-family home sales, a primary self-storage demand driver, along with transaction volume and new development underwriting. The revised estimate also incorporates 30 new markets Yardi Matrix added to its coverage since July 2025, which can shift aggregate totals even when individual metros are slowing.
The takeaway for operators: the pain from 2022 and 2023 peak deliveries is not over, but the next wave of starts is thinning. Markets that absorbed poorly in 2024 and 2025 will still feel 2026 completions. Markets where starts have already rolled over will see relief later, not sooner.
What Do March Advertised Rates Tell Us About Pricing Power?
Yardi Matrix's April 2026 national report, based on March 2026 data, documented advertised rate decreases of 2% nationally. Nearly all of the top 30 metros recorded lower year-over-year rate growth in March compared to February. All top metros posted negative annual growth.
The decline spanned non-climate-controlled and climate-controlled units. With most new supply concentrated in climate-controlled product, that segment is "facing renewed pressure on asking-rate growth after outpacing NCC for most of 2025," according to the report. Climate-controlled premiums that held through much of last year are now compressing under the same supply weight that hit drive-up product first.
At the end of March, about 46.5 million NRSF were under construction nationwide, representing 2.3% of existing inventory, unchanged from February. Yardi Matrix tracks operational profiles for 32,803 completed U.S. self-storage facilities and monitors 2,619 properties in various stages of development.
Few near-term catalysts for a meaningful turnaround in demand are evident, as a historically weak housing market and ongoing development continue to pressure rental rates.
- Yardi Matrix, Self Storage National Report, April 2026
Operators in Sun Belt metros with double-digit supply-per-capita figures should assume advertised-rate pressure persists through peak leasing season. Operators in supply-constrained coastal and Midwestern markets have more room to hold rate, but national data still shows broad weakness.
Are Street Rates Actually Stabilizing?
RentCafe's April 2026 analysis of Yardi Matrix street-rate data shows a different grain of the same picture. National street rates averaged $133 per month in April 2026, up 1.5% from March, the first month-over-month increase of the year. Rates remained 2.2% below April 2025.
Among the 150 largest U.S. cities with at least 10 storage units, 72% recorded year-over-year street-rate declines in April, an improvement from 76% in March. Lincoln, NE, led with 5.0% annual growth ($126 per month). Omaha followed at 4.6% ($99). Glendale, CA, posted the steepest decline at 10.7% ($281), despite just 2.1 square feet of supply per capita.
Forecasted 2026 deliveries for the top 150 cities total nearly 12 million square feet, down 14% from 2025's roughly 14 million square feet. National forecasted deliveries are down 10% to about 51 million square feet for the full year versus nearly 57 million in 2025. Houston leads the city pipeline with 888,844 square feet expected in 2026, a 3% addition to existing inventory at 7.0 square feet per capita.
The monthly uptick is real. The annual decline is also real. Stabilization, in this data, means the rate of deterioration is slowing, not that pricing power has returned nationally.
What Should Operators Do With a Higher Supply Forecast and Lower Starts?
The combination of elevated completions and falling starts defines the next 18 months. Operators finishing properties started in 2023 and 2024 will lease into soft advertised-rate markets. Operators underwriting new developments in 2026 face lower competing deliveries in 2028 and 2029, but must model lease-up against housing turnover that remains historically weak.
Yardi Matrix expects new development through 2031 to remain "difficult but not impossible" and "well below what was delivered during the 2022 and 2023 peak of the last development cycle." Capital availability is not the binding constraint. Demand and rent growth are.
Portfolio strategy should split by vintage and market: stabilize occupancy in oversupplied Sun Belt assets before chasing rate; push rate in undersupplied Midwest and Northeast metros where April data showed positive annual growth; delay ground-up starts where forecasted 2026 deliveries exceed 10% of existing inventory unless underwriting assumes a multi-year lease-up.
The Numbers Worth Writing Down
- 54 million NRSF under construction at end of 2025, most expected to complete in 2026
- Q1 2026 construction starts: 29% below the prior-year pace
- Forecasted 2027 new supply: about 45 million NRSF; 2028: about 38.62 million NRSF
- National advertised rates: down 2% in March 2026 (after -1.2% in February, -0.4% in January)
- Under construction at end of March: 46.5 million NRSF (2.3% of existing inventory)
- National street rates in April 2026: $133/month, up 1.5% month-over-month, down 2.2% year-over-year
- 72% of top 150 cities posted annual street-rate declines in April (vs. 76% in March)
- Top 150 cities' forecasted 2026 deliveries: nearly 12 million sq. ft., down 14% from 2025
Completions Lag Starts by Two Years
Self-storage supply forecasts confuse people because they mix two clocks. The 54 million NRSF completing in 2026 was decided when developers pulled permits in 2023 and 2024. The 29% start decline in Q1 2026 will not shrink this year's delivered inventory in any meaningful way. It shrinks 2028.
That is why Yardi Matrix can simultaneously raise the 2026 forecast and warn that demand is unlikely to rebound this year. The industry is still digesting the last cycle's appetite for building. The current cycle's discipline will not show up in occupancy statistics until operators who started late feel the difference operators who stopped early are already planning for.
Rate growth will stay uneven: coastal scarcity and Midwest stability on one side, Sun Belt absorption risk on the other. National averages will keep masking both stories until housing turnover recovers or delivered square footage falls far enough for occupancy to matter more than discounting.
Sources
- Pipeline Elevates Yardi Matrix Self Storage Supply Forecast, Yardi Matrix
- U.S. Self Storage Advertised Rates Fall Again, Yardi Matrix Reports, Yardi Matrix
- 2026 self storage reports: Yardi Matrix updates U.S. performance, Yardi
- April 2026 self storage report: Rents move up monthly, down yearly, RentCafe Self Storage
- Matrix Self Storage National Report-April 2026, Yardi Matrix